Why Tustin Deserves Its Own Market Check-In
Most market reports lump all of Orange County together, but a buyer looking at a townhome near Old Town Tustin and a buyer eyeing a custom home in North Tustin are in two very different markets. As an Orange County agent who works Tustin, Irvine, and the surrounding cities every week, I want to give you a grounded look at where Tustin stands heading into October 2026, and what the new rate environment means for your decision.
One note on data: public sources report Tustin figures differently depending on the month, the property types included, and how they define "median." I have cited the source and period for each number below so you can see where it comes from, and I treat all of them as approximate. If you want numbers for a specific street, school zone, or floor plan, I can pull a custom comparable analysis.
The Rate Backdrop: 7% Is Back
The biggest story for buyers this fall is financing. According to Freddie Mac's weekly survey released September 24, 2026, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.03%, up from 6.95% the prior week and up from 6.30% a year earlier. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.42%. Freddie Mac's chief economist noted that the housing market remains supported by a solid labor market and a growing economy, but the practical effect for Tustin buyers is a higher monthly payment than they would have seen at this time last year.
To put that in perspective, on a $1,000,000 loan, a 73 basis point increase in rate adds several hundred dollars to the monthly principal and interest payment. For many of my clients, that has shifted the question from "what can I get approved for?" to "what payment am I comfortable with?"
Tustin Market Snapshot
Here is what the most recent publicly available data shows for Tustin:
- June 2026 (one local market report): median sold price of roughly $1,240,000, about 4.5% above June 2025, with a median of 58 days on market, about 161 active listings, and a sale-to-list ratio near 99.8%.
- September 2026 (Movoto, data reflecting early October): a median sale price near $994,000, around 57 days on market versus 50 a year earlier, and roughly 176 active listings. That source also showed approximately 188 sales for the month, up from 154 a year earlier.
Please do not read the drop from $1.24 million to $994,000 as a 20% price crash. The two sources use different methods and different property-type mixes, and Tustin's median swings widely depending on how many condos and townhomes close in a given month. What both sources agree on is the broader trend: homes are taking close to two months to sell, inventory is meaningful, and sale prices are landing very near list price when a home is priced correctly.
Single-Family vs. Condos and Townhomes
In the June report, single-family homes in Tustin had a median near $1,387,500, while condos and townhomes sat in the low-to-mid $750,000s. That roughly $600,000 gap is why I always ask buyers to decide on property type first. Townhomes and condos in and around Old Town Tustin and Tustin Legacy are the realistic entry point for first-time buyers, while single-family homes in Tustin Ranch and North Tustin sit in a different price tier altogether.
By ZIP Code
- 92780: June median near $1,022,500 with about 61 days on market, reflecting a larger share of attached homes and older single-family neighborhoods.
- 92782: June median near $1,257,500 with about 53 days on market, which covers much of Tustin Ranch and newer construction.
What the Numbers Mean for Buyers
With homes sitting around 55 to 60 days, buyers have something they lacked for years: time. In my experience, this is the window where careful buyers win.
- Negotiate beyond price: Seller credits, rate buydowns, and repair requests are realistic again, especially on homes that have passed the 30-day mark.
- Look at the price history: A listing that has already had a reduction usually signals a seller ready to deal.
- Get a real payment quote: Ask your lender to price a 30-year fixed, an adjustable option, and a temporary buydown side by side, so you can compare monthly cost rather than headline rate.
- Keep your contingencies: With less competition, there is rarely a reason to waive inspection protections.
What the Numbers Mean for Sellers
If you are thinking of selling a Tustin home this fall, the data says pricing is everything. Sale-to-list ratios near 100% mean well-priced homes are still closing at or near asking, but a home that is priced optimistically will sit, and in a 7% rate environment every extra week on market costs you leverage.
- Price to the current market, not last spring's: Comparable sales from the past 30 to 60 days matter more than anything from the first half of the year.
- Invest in presentation: Fresh paint, clean landscaping, and professional photos are the highest-return prep work I recommend.
- Be ready for buyer concessions: Decide in advance what you are willing to offer on credits or a buydown so you can respond quickly to a good offer.
- Consider the calendar: Listings that go live in early October have a few good weeks before the holidays slow showings.
What to Watch Through Year-End
Three things will shape Tustin's market over the next few months: the direction of mortgage rates after the next Federal Reserve meeting, how much inventory builds as sellers who waited all summer finally list, and whether buyers who have been sitting out decide that 7% is the new normal and re-enter. Historically, the final quarter is quieter, but quieter does not mean closed. Motivated buyers and sellers still transact every week.
I also remind clients that rates are not permanent. A buyer who purchases carefully today at a fair price can refinance if rates fall later, while a buyer who waits for lower rates may face more competition and higher prices when they do. Neither path is right for everyone, and that is exactly why a conversation about your specific numbers matters.
Thinking About Tustin?
Whether you are buying your first condo near Old Town, moving up to a home in Tustin Ranch, or deciding when to list, I would be glad to walk through current comparable sales and your payment scenarios. Call or text me at 949-285-9519 or visit andrew-homes.com.
Data sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (September 24, 2026); Movoto Tustin market trends (September 2026); local Tustin market report (June 2026). Figures are approximate and for informational purposes only.